I’m so pleased we met. I love you. I can’t wait to see you. I’ve scheduled a flight for next month.
Finally, you’ve found your dream match. But then…
I’ve had an accident. Can you help me with my medical bills?
My luggage is stuck in customs. Can you submit some paperwork and payments for me?
For nearly 59,000 Americans in 2024, the saying “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is” has become a haunting, real-life nightmare. Scammed for at least $697.3 million by fraudsters, not only have these victims been left out of pocket, but they’ve also been left humiliated, frightened, and heartbroken.
Furthermore, despite the number of reported romance scams declining each year since 2021, the amount of money involved in these scams remains high (2023 saw 62,400 scams with $702.7 million lost). This highlights scammers’ ongoing focus on lucrative schemes with higher financial gains–such as cryptocurrency and investment scams–with romance scams playing a key role in these campaigns.
For example, in its 2023 cryptocurrency fraud report, the IC3 noted that confidence/romance scams made up 6 percent of the total complaints with 3,749 in total. These resulted in losses of over $215.8 million.
So while romance scam figures may be declining, this type of scam could be used to execute bigger, more financially rewarding schemes. This, in turn, leads to ‘romance scams’ falling into other categories when they’re reported–something the AARP recently reported on, too. It suggests romance and investment scams are becoming double-barreled scams as victims are promised love and money. AARP’s report states: “The deception starts out as romance fraud and transforms into a cryptocurrency investment fraud in which victims have lost millions of dollars.”
To get an idea of the extent of romance scams on a state-by-state basis, Comparitech analyzed data from the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Better Business Bureau (BBB), and American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). Using 2023 data and all of the available data for 2024 so far, we estimated the true scope of romance scams in 2024.
Key findings:
- An estimated 58,734 people fell victim to romance scams in 2024–a 6 percent decrease from 2023 (62,368)
- Losses from these scams fell by 0.8 percent from $702.7 million in 2023 to a predicted $697.3 million in 2024
- The FTC saw a 9 percent decrease in the number of romance scams reported in the first three quarters of 2024 (compared to the same period in 2023), declining from 34,638 to 31,406
- The estimated losses over these three quarters also dropped from $66.4 million to $60.3 million
- The BBB saw a 2.4 percent increase in romance scams (from 248 to 254)*
- The AARP saw a 201 percent increase in the number of cases it saw in 2024 (from 95 to 286) –however, a change in overall reporting in 2023 may have caused these figures to increase more significantly
*Due to a change in reporting from the BBB, our figures may differ from previous studies.
States with the highest rates of romance scams per 100,000 people
The states with the highest number of romance scams are also the most populous in the United States, so there isn’t much surprise with the figures. However, if we take a look at the rate of romance scams per 100,000 people, we can see that the top states aren’t the highly populated ones. Rather, the states with the highest rates of romance scams are:
- Arizona – 28.05 romance scams per 100,000 people
- District of Columbia – 27.34 romance scams per 100,000 people
- Alaska – 25.47 romance scams per 100,000 people
- Vermont – 24.56 romance scams per 100,000 people
- Oregon – 24.54 romance scams per 100,000 people
As the below map also shows, the highest rates of romance scams per 100,000 tend to be in western states.
States with the highest number of romance scams and losses
The top five states with the highest number of romance scams and/or losses are:
- California – 6,687 romance scams with a total loss of $104.8 million
- Texas – 4,672 romance scams with a total loss of $61.03 million
- Florida – 4,447 romance scams with a total loss of $64.5 million
- New York – 3,316 romance scams with a total loss of $35.7 million
- Arizona – 2,127 romance scams with a total loss of $28.6 million
States with the highest and lowest average loss per romance scam
Despite having high figures, none of the above states made it into the top three highest average losses per scam (according to IC3 2023 data). The states with the highest average loss per romance scam were:
- Idaho – $61,784
- West Virginia – $51,588
- Oregon – $50,136
In contrast, the states with the lowest averages per romance scam were:
- Wyoming – $6,811
- Mississippi – $11,029
- South Dakota – $12,655
Romance scams continue to decline but the monetary values involved do not
In 2021, FTC’s records show that romance scam figures reached an all-time high with 59,690 reported scams. In 2022, these figures declined by 18 percent to 48,817, and 2023’s figures declined even further (by 7 percent) to 45,468.
So far, the FTC has only released Q1, Q2, and Q3 figures for 2024, which amount to 31,406 cases. As noted previously, this is a 9 percent decrease on the same period the year prior (34,638). If Q4 follows a similar trend to the first three-quarters of 2024 (we used the average figures for each quarter of 2024 so far for each state to estimate Q4), we estimate that the FTC will receive 41,875 reports for 2024. This would mean an 8 percent year-on-year decrease in overall case figures.
In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024, the FTC noted a median loss of $1,924, $1,877, and $1,957 respectively to romance scams. When multiplied by the number of cases from Q1 to Q3, this equals losses of nearly $60.3 million. During the same periods of 2023, the median losses were similar (Q1 = $2,000, Q2 = $1,850, Q3 = $1,900), generating total losses of $66.4 million. That’s a 9 percent drop in losses.
Please note: The total romance scam figures reported by the FTC are always higher than the total of our individual state figures. Some reports are not assigned to a specific state due to lack of location data.
The IC3 tells a similar story with a steady increase in romance scams from 2016 to 2021 before a decline in 2022.
From 2016 to 2021, the IC3 noted a 68 percent increase in romance scam reports (from 14,500 in 2016 to 24,300 in 2021) and a 335 percent increase in the amount lost to these scams (from $220 million in 2016 to $956 million in 2021). We noted a 162 percent increase in the average amount lost per scam, too – increasing from $15,000 in 2016 to $39,300 in 2021.
In 2022, figures started to gradually decline. The number of cases dropped by 21 percent from 2021 to 2022 (declining from 24,299 in 2021 to 19,021 in 2022), before dropping a further 6 percent from 2022 to 2023 (17,823). The amount lost to these scams also declined year on year (from $956 million in 2021 to $736 million in 2022 and $652.5 million in 2023).
Interestingly, however, the average cost per scam remains high ($39,345 in 2021, $38,688 in 2022, and $36,613 in 2023). This further highlights scammers’ focus on carrying out fewer, more lucrative scams.
Based on the IC3’s 2023 figures and the increase/decrease seen within each state, we estimate that romance scam cases reported to the IC3 could be around 16,300 in 2024. Using the average losses witnessed in 2023, this would equate to a total loss of $591 million in romance scams reported to the IC3 alone.
The Better Business Bureau (BBB) reported a slight increase in romance scams from 2023 to 2024, rising by 2.4 percent from 248 to 254. In total, BBB noted 501 romance scams in its scam tracker in 2024 (an increase from 439 in 2023). However, many of these reports haven’t been assigned to a state. We only use the reports that were allocated to a state (254 in total) in our state estimates.
AARP figures also show an incline, but this is much more significant than the one seen by the BBB. From 2023 to 2024, AARP’s figures nearly tripled from 95 to 286. This increase appears more drastic than other statistics, which may suggest a change in how romance scams were categorized in each of these years.
Despite romance scam figures declining significantly across the board, cybercriminals still use the tactic to scam victims. Rather, ‘seducing’ victims and tricking them into making investments or trading in crypto appears to be an increasingly common tactic.
Scammers are also looking to generative AI technology to enhance their schemes and provide a more “convincing” lure. In a recent announcement, the IC3 listed a number of ways in which scammers use generative AI to their benefit. Here are some that could be used to carry out romance scams:
- Creating a large number of fictitious profiles on social media to trick victims into sending money
- Quickly writing messages so they can send these to victims faster and reach a wider audience with believable content
- Assisting with language translations to reduce the number of spelling/grammatical errors seen when foreign scammers are targeting US victims
- Producing photos to share with victims in private chats to convince them they’re a “real” person
Gone are the days when spotting a romance scam was as easy as noticing the broken English in a message from someone claiming to be a Nigerian prince!
The true cost of romance scams to date could amount to over $535 billion
While the figures we mention above make for stark reading, they’re likely only half the story, because many online scams go under the radar.
Romance scams are highly unreported due to many victims feeling ashamed of having been scammed and how difficult it is to trace the scammers. One survey conducted by the AARP found that 14 percent of US adults had been targeted by a relationship scam and 4 percent were a victim of this type of crime. 57 percent of victims lost money or suffered other financial losses due to these scams.
Based on the current US population of 341 million people and 4 percent of these having fallen victim to a romance scam, that would suggest that 13.64 million Americans have been victimized by a romance scammer.
Now, let’s compare that to the number of reports that have been received (up to 2023–we won’t include estimates here). IC3 data for romance scams goes back to 2011 with 187,721 reports. The FTC data goes back to 2012 with 310,025 reported. Between 2019 to 2023 the BBB received 736 reports while the AARP received 874 reports during the same period. This gives us a total of 499,356 reports, which would mean just 3.66 percent of romance scams are reported.
Even if we allow some room for error and other reports (in previous years, romance scams were perhaps included in another category), only a fraction of the 4 percent of people who fall victim to these scams each year actually report them.
Let’s take a look at how much money could have been lost in each state, based on 4 percent of the population being a victim of these scams and using 2023’s average loss per scam in each state (based on IC3’s data):
Based on the state data we have available for how much the average victim loses, and factoring in unreported romance scams, we can see that as much as $494 billion could have been lost to these scams.
What are the key warning signs of a romance scam?
If you do meet someone online, even if it seems like a natural occurrence (i.e. some scammers befriend people on apps like Words with Friends), look out for these key warning signs that they may be a scammer:
- They ask you to move away from a dating website to communicate. For example, they may request that you chat with them through Google Hangouts, WhatsApp, or private email.
- They ask a lot of questions about you but don’t give much away about themselves.
- They say they’re in the military abroad, they work abroad (i.e. on an oil rig), or they’re helping out abroad (i.e. at an orphanage). They may also say they’re a highly qualified professional, i.e. a scientist or doctor who’s working abroad.
- They have poor spelling or grammar yet claim to be highly educated.
- They seem to move the relationship quickly, declaring their love or telling you that they’ve never felt this way before.
- They say they want to meet up but find numerous excuses not to, i.e. working abroad, canceling flights, or having financial troubles.
- They ask for money. Even if it is only for a small amount – be wary of anyone asking for financial help. Scammers frequently ask for help in the form of payment/gift cards, too, such as iTunes, Amazon, Steam, or Google Play cards.
- They ask if they can send you a package. In scams, the “package” gets held up in “customs” and you need to pay to have the goods released.
- They say their spouse has died of cancer and they are trying to look after their son/daughter.
- Scammers often blackmail victims by building a relationship with them, asking for nude photos to make them vulnerable, and then threatening to post those pictures on the internet if they don’t send money in return. The same goes for video calls, sometimes only for a few seconds so they can photoshop the victims face onto an explicit image.
- The FBI has warned people of a rising trend in which scammers persuade victims to send money to invest or trade cryptocurrency.
If any of these apply to someone you’ve just met or certain alarm bells are ringing, protect yourself by:
- Ceasing all communication with them.
- Talking to a loved one or friend to get their opinion.
- Searching for any images they’ve sent you using Google’s image reversing tool. Oftentimes, scammers will steal someone’s identity so you may find the image belongs to someone else.
- Looking for scams that sound similar to the stories you’ve been told. For example, if they say they’re in they’re trying to get discharged from the military or are working on an oil rig, look for other stories that sound similar.
Methodology
To get overall figures for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, we used 2023 data from the IC3, FTC, BBB, and AARP, and all of the available data for 2024 from the latter three.
IC3 Data: Data categorized as “Confidence/Romance Scams.” Reports are reviewed and researched before being passed on to federal, state, local, or international law enforcement or regulatory agencies. To estimate 2024’s figures, we used the percentage increase/decrease witnessed in each state from 2022 to 2023 before multiplying by the average loss per victim seen in 2023.
For example, in Alabama, romance scams dropped from 206 to 197 from 2022 to 2023. That’s a 4.37 percent decrease year on year. This percent decrease was then applied to 2023’s figure (197) to estimate 2024’s figure of 188. The average victim loss in Alabama in 2023 was $16,314. This was then multiplied by our estimated number of cases for 2024 to get a total $ amount lost for the year ($3,067,032).
https://www.ic3.gov/AnnualReport/Reports/2023State/
FTC Data: The FTC doesn’t provide state-by-state figures for romance scams (it is a subcategory of imposter scams). We calculate the percentage of overall imposter scams that relate to romance scams based on the total figures available. For Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024, this was 6.79 percent. The FTC does provide a median loss for romance scams per quarter which was applied to the figures we derived from the imposter scams.
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/federal.trade.commission/viz/FraudReports/FraudFacts
In order to estimate Q4 figures for the FTC, we looked at the average across the first three quarters of the year for each. These were then applied accordingly to gather estimates for the final quarter of 2024.
For example, Alabama reported 139 romance scams in Q1, 139 in Q2, and 136 in Q3. The average across these three quarters equaled 138 romance scams, which gave the estimated figures for Q4.
BBB Data: Data categorized as “Romance Scams” and submitted against companies – i.e., fraudulent dating websites, psychics, and romance scammers who ask people to send money to a business. Complaints were investigated by the BBB. Reporting may have changed and affected figures from previous studies.
AARP Data: Data categorized as “Online Dating Scams” or “Online Relationship Scams”. Help may be provided or cases may be referred to local law enforcement. It does appear that AARP may have changed the way it now reports on online dating scams, which may provide a reason as to why figures have increased again so drastically after dropping so significantly from 2022 to 2023.
When discussing the overall figures for the IC3 and FTC, figures may be higher than the total of all the states included in our study. This is due to our study only featuring the 50 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The IC3 and FTC include other areas, e.g. the U.S. Virgin Islands and American Samoa. Some cases don’t have location data so aren’t assigned to a specific state.
State populations: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-national-total.html#v2024
Researcher: Charlotte Bond
